Canadiens/Lightning deal could depend on Islanders first round pick.

Tampa Bay Lightning GM Brain Lawton and Habs GM Bob Gainey

T-minus 47 hours and counting until the start of the 2009 NHL Draft.

As team general managers and staff from all thirty teams, as well as top prospects expected to go in the first rounds ascend on the Bell Centre, the trade rumors circulate more and more.

For Canadiens fans, the “topic-des-last six months” has been Viincent LeCavalier coming to Montreal.

An apparent deal between Montreal and the Tampa Bay Lightning was killed when names of players the Canadiens were planning to move were made public.

Habs' GM Bob Gainey pointed fingers at Tampa GM Brian Lawton for leaking the names after Montreal’s season ended.

Lawton quickly dismissed the allegations.

With the Lightning struggling in the bank account, it seems imminent that they will move their franchise player before his no-trade clause kicks on July 1.

Despite the verbal exchange between Lawton and Gainey, a Montreal-Tampa deal still shows high on the rumor charts.

The question is, who is Tampa willing to move?

In media interviews today, Lawton seemed determined that LeCavalier would remain in Tampa.

Lawton smiles too much when he talks for my liking. I think he’s bluffing.

So if he is moving LeCavalier, the Canadiens would have to give up a fair bit.

The initial speculated deal in January involved forwards Chris Higgins and Tomas Plekanec, prospect defenseman P.K. Subban and draft picks/prospects going to Tampa.

This scenario could still work with Higgins being a RFA. The prospect could be a goalie with Kari Ramo reportedly off to the KHL.

Subban would be likely substituted as he just signed with the Canadiens this spring.

The key to the deal between the two teams could be dependent on who the New York Islanders select first.

If New York goes with Victor Hedman, that’s how the deal could go.

With Tampa having the number two pick Friday, they can grab John Tavares to fill the void at forward and still have Martin St. Louis and the learning Steve Stamkos with a lower payroll for a couple years.

The alternate scenario could go a different way though.

Still provided that Hedman goes first, Tampa could give up their pick (Tavares) and a few others lesser players for Montreal’s 18th overall pick and a smaller package of players.

Maybe throwing Martin St. Louis into the mix will sweeten the Canadiens end of the pot, and help Tampa’s pocket book.

Montreal retains some cap room to announce that Saku Koivu (on the cheap), Alex Kovalev and, maybe, Mike Komisarek (depending on the Islanders choice) are re-signed.

If Tavares goes to the Islanders, we could see possible a deal along the latter of the two or a deal back to square one.

With a stash of centres in this years draft likely to go in the first round, both Montreal and the Lightning could still have a winner in the draft down the middle.

In all likelihood, we won’t know officially though until sometime early Friday evening when NHL commissioner Gary Bettman takes the stage to make any deal official.